Amylin PharmaceuticalsAMLN

Stock Research and Analysis

by Matthew Coffina

Amylin's lead pipeline drug has multi-billion-dollar potential, and recent cost-cutting efforts put the company on track to become cash-flow-positive sometime in the next two years. Even so, Amylin's future remains highly uncertain, as the company must Read more

Bulls Say

Almost 24 million people have diabetes in the U.S. alone. Poor diets, lack of exercise, and aging populations are causing the prevalence of the disease to steadily climb worldwide.

Carefully controlling blood-glucose levels can prevent many more-costly illnesses later, which leads to favorable insurance reimbursement for diabetes drugs.

The added convenience of exenatide once-weekly could significantly broaden its addressable market. Weight loss, a favorable safety profile, and superior efficacy make exenatide stand out over other diabetes drugs.

Amylin could be an acquisition target, as big pharma firms seek to replenish their pipelines with innovative new drugs.

Amylin is trying to extend its expertise into obesity, a notoriously difficult-to-treat but potentially very lucrative indication. Read more

Bears Say

A possible link between Byetta and pancreatitis has been heavily reported in the news, which could discourage doctors from prescribing the drug and could be a roadblock to the FDA's approval of exenatide once-weekly.

If liraglutide is approved, Amylin will face competition from wide-moat Novo Nordisk, which has a long-established presence in the diabetes market and a highly productive sales organization.

Amylin's marketing partner, Lilly, seemed like a likely acquisitor for the firm until Lilly recently bought cancer-focused Imclone. This choice could signal that Lilly is shifting its focus away from diabetes.

The exenatide molecule is the basis of both Byetta and exenatide once-weekly. Without a composition-of-matter patent, Amylin could be vulnerable to patent challenges.

Amylin has struggled to control costs. Despite increasing sales from $34 million in 2004 to $840 million last year, the company's operating loss increased by $90 million during that period. Read more

Strategy

Amylin's research expertise is in peptide hormones. It seeks to develop synthetic versions of naturally occurring hormones for the treatment of diabetes and obesity. The company handles all commercialization Read more

Management

We give Amylin fair marks for stewardship. The company is led by CEO Daniel Bradbury, who took over for Ginger Graham in 2007. Bradbury had served as COO since 2003 and has been with Amylin since 1994. Combined, Graham and Bradbury earned more than Read more

Profile

Amylin is a biopharmaceutical company focused on diabetes and obesity. It has two approved products for diabetes, Symlin and Byetta. Byetta is co-marketed with Eli Lilly, Read more

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