Stock Analyst Notes

by R. J. Hottovy, CFA | 10-07-09 | 9:41AM | E-mail Note
Browse Analyst Notes by Company : A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z All

There were several encouraging signs in Costco's COST fourth-quarter update, including improving profitability and sequential comparable-sales growth. We are confident that firm's exceptional value proposition will continue to resonate with consumers over the coming quarters, leading to improved fundamentals and market share gains. We will wait until the firm's conference call before finalizing any adjustments to our model, but we do not anticipate a significant change to our fair value estimate.

Comparable-sales fell 5% during the fourth quarter (or a 1% gain excluding gasoline deflation and foreign currency translation), including declines of 6% and 3% in the U.S. and international segments, respectively. However, fiscal 2010 got off to a solid start in September, with total comparable-sales increasing 1% (a 4% increase excluding gasoline deflation and foreign exchange translation). We expect gasoline deflation and foreign currency translation to be less of a head wind in coming periods, resulting in stronger top-line growth. The gross margin (excluding membership fees) improved 60 basis points during the quarter because of higher merchandise margins in the firm's core business, increased private-label penetration, and fewer gasoline sales (which carry a lower margin than other merchandise categories)--a trend we expect to continue over the next few quarters.

Add a Comment
Sponsored Links
Buy a Link Now
Sponsor Center
Content Partners
First Impression of Costco's 4Q rj.hottovy@morningstar.com First Impression of Costco's 4Q COST