We are raising our long-term natural-gas price assumptions. As such, our new price deck will positively affect our fair value estimates for numerous companies in the natural-gas industry. From the time when we last revised our natural gas forecast higher (in  February 2006) until now, we have continued to see natural-gas finding and development costs climb in North America. We think the price required to induce new marginal producers to invest in new supply is around $7-$8 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) over the next five years. On the low end, we think the large installed base of gas-fired power plants should help support prices above $5 per mcf. Although liquefied natural gas should displace some high-cost domestic production over the next five years, we don't see it as a significant threat to our new natural-gas price deck.Our new five-year natural gas price deck:
2007: $7.80
2008: $7.60
2009: $7.10
2010: $7.20
2011: $7.40 Our previous price deck:
2007: $7.70
2008: $7.10
2009: $6.20
2010: $6.30
2011: $6.40 Increases in our fair value estimates will vary. For firms that concentrate on oil or those pursuing an integrated strategy, we expect fairly small changes. However, we expect more significant adjustments to our fair value estimates for smaller, independent firms focusing on North American natural-gas production. Please refer to the valuation section of each company's Analyst Report to see how our fair value estimates are changing on a firm-by-firm basis.
Get our full take on
BG Group PLC, St. Mary Land & Exploration Company, Energy Partners, Ltd., Range Resources Corporation, Bill Barrett Corporation, McMoRan Exploration Co., Devon Energy Corporation, Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Provident Energy Trust, Whiting Petroleum Corporation, Southwestern Energy Company, Quicksilver Resources, Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corp., Delta Petroleum Corporation, EXCO Resources, Inc., XTO Energy, Inc., EOG Resources, Apache Corporation, San Juan Basin Royalty, Newfield Exploration Company, Cimarex Energy Company, Nexen, Inc., EnCana Corporation, Penn West Energy Trust, Enerplus Resources Fund, Pengrowth Energy Trust, Talisman Energy, Inc., Ultra Petroleum Corporation, Denbury Resources, Inc., Canetic Resources Trust, Primewest Energy Trust, BG Group PLC, StatoilHydro ASA
See our complete company report and outlook--including fair value estimate, consider buying and selling prices, risk rating, bull and bear arguments,
and star rating--with a free two-week Morningstar.com Premium Membership trial.
You will also get complete access to all 2,000 Stock Analyst Reports, 2,000 Mutual Fund Analyst Reports, and Morningstar's award-winning Portfolio Management and Screening tools.
Start my free trial
Learn more about Premium Membership
View Sample Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-05-09 | 2:27PM BG Group Reports 3Q
07-31-09 | 2:17PM BG Group Reports First-Half Earnings
06-30-09 | 2:36PM EXCO Enters Joint Venture with BG
More Analyst Research
St. Mary Land & Exploration Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-03-09 | 8:44AM St. Mary Ramping Up in Eagle Ford
08-04-09 | 8:49AM St. Mary Increases Drilling Activity
07-21-09 | 9:09AM Earnings Preview for St. Mary
More Analyst Research
Energy Partners, Ltd. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
06-12-09 | 2:47PM Dropping Coverage of Energy Partners
04-01-09 | 3:15PM Energy Partners at the End of Its Rope
More Analyst Research
Range Resources Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-16-09 | 4:28PM Spectra, Range Team Up in Marcellus
10-22-09 | 8:55AM Range Resources Turns In 3Q Results
10-14-09 | 9:12AM Range Resources Gives 3Q Operations Update
07-23-09 | 4:31PM Range Resources Turns 2Q Results
07-16-09 | 9:34AM Range Provides Operations Update
More Analyst Research
Bill Barrett Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-03-09 | 10:09AM Bill Barrett Posts 3Q
08-04-09 | 10:51AM Bill Barrett Turns In 2Q Results
05-05-09 | 4:35PM Bill Barrett Optimistic on Rockies
More Analyst Research
McMoRan Exploration Co. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-20-09 | 9:17AM McMoRan's Drilling Continues in 3Q
07-17-09 | 8:50AM McMoRan's Challenges Remain in 2Q
04-23-09 | 1:09PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
04-22-09 | 10:37AM McMoRan's 1Q Signals Offshore Risks
More Analyst Research
Devon Energy Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-16-09 | 8:51AM Devon Repositions
11-04-09 | 11:14AM Devon Sees Declines in 3Q
08-05-09 | 9:15AM Devon Announces 2Q Results
More Analyst Research
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-03-09 | 9:02AM Anadarko Reports 3Q
08-04-09 | 9:23AM Anadarko Reports 2Q Results
05-07-09 | 1:08PM Anadarko Announces 1Q Results
More Analyst Research
Provident Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-11-09 | 5:26PM Provident Energy Announces 3Q
08-13-09 | 8:55AM Provident Energy Buys and Sells Assets
05-22-09 | 2:25PM Provident Finishes Strategic Review
More Analyst Research
Whiting Petroleum Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-29-09 | 9:16AM Whiting Posts 3Q Results
07-30-09 | 10:13AM Whiting Raises 2009 Capital Budget
04-30-09 | 1:42PM Whiting Sees Improving Bakken Returns
More Analyst Research
Southwestern Energy Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-30-09 | 8:37AM Southwestern's Growth Resumes in 4Q
08-04-09 | 4:23PM Southwestern Drilling Gains Persist
05-22-09 | 4:36PM Lower Uncertainty for Southwestern Energy
05-01-09 | 10:28AM Southwestern Energy Shines Again
More Analyst Research
Quicksilver Resources, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-09-09 | 8:52AM Quicksilver's 3Q Production Lags
11-04-09 | 10:36AM Quicksilver's Production Outstrips Estimates
09-22-09 | 9:26AM Great Start for Quicksilver Resources
08-10-09 | 8:53AM Quicksilver Resources Reports 2Q
05-20-09 | 9:23AM Reducing Quicksilver's Uncertainty
05-18-09 | 9:12AM Quicksilver Announces Alliance with Eni
More Analyst Research
Chesapeake Energy Corp. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-20-09 | 3:17PM Chesapeake Energy under Review
11-03-09 | 8:56AM Chesapeake Announces 3Q Results
08-04-09 | 9:02AM Chesapeake Turns In 2Q Results
More Analyst Research
Delta Petroleum Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
09-15-09 | 3:53PM Dropping Coverage of Delta Petroleum
05-27-09 | 4:43PM Delta Petroleum CEO Resigns
04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
More Analyst Research
EXCO Resources, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-06-09 | 10:21AM EXCO Transforms Itself in 2009
06-30-09 | 2:36PM EXCO Enters Joint Venture with BG
06-29-09 | 11:59AM Encore Acquires EXCO Properties
04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
More Analyst Research
XTO Energy, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-04-09 | 9:25AM XTO Tops Our 3Q Production Forecast
08-05-09 | 9:11AM XTO's 2Q Results Impress
05-06-09 | 2:50PM XTO Announces First-Quarter Results
More Analyst Research
EOG Resources Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
08-07-09 | 9:00AM EOG Announces 2Q Results
05-05-09 | 3:25PM EOG Announces 1Q Results
04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
More Analyst Research
Apache Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-29-09 | 9:46AM International Operations Boost Apache
07-30-09 | 9:22AM Apache Reports Production Gains
04-30-09 | 9:28AM Apache Reports 1Q, Buys Assets
More Analyst Research
San Juan Basin Royalty Full Analyst Report
More Analyst Research
Newfield Exploration Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-10-09 | 4:57PM Newfield Acquires Eagle Ford Assets
10-22-09 | 8:48AM Newfield Resets Drilling Plans
09-11-09 | 10:06AM Newfield Finds Offshore China Oil
07-27-09 | 8:37AM Newfield's 2Q Spotlights Granite Wash
07-20-09 | 3:57PM Deepwater Discoveries Continue
06-10-09 | 9:08AM Offshore Discoveries for Newfield
More Analyst Research
Cimarex Energy Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-22-09 | 9:30AM Cimarex Gives 3Q Operations Update
08-07-09 | 8:56AM Cimarex Reports 2Q Results
07-31-09 | 3:36PM 2Q Operational Update from Cimarex
05-08-09 | 11:27AM Update on Cimarex
04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
More Analyst Research
Nexen, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-28-09 | 10:54AM Nexen Reports 3Q
07-16-09 | 11:52AM Nexen Reports 2Q
More Analyst Research
EnCana Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-12-09 | 9:18AM EnCana Provides 2010 Estimates
09-11-09 | 9:12AM EnCana to Split in Two
07-23-09 | 4:11PM EnCana Optimistic on Resource Plays
More Analyst Research
Penn West Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-05-09 | 12:39PM Penn West Reports 3Q
08-12-09 | 9:07AM Penn West Reports 2Q
05-07-09 | 11:41AM Penn West Announces 1Q
More Analyst Research
Enerplus Resources Fund Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-17-09 | 4:27PM Enerplus Buys and Sells Assets
08-10-09 | 9:39AM Enerplus Announces 2Q
More Analyst Research
Pengrowth Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-10-09 | 9:25AM Pengrowth Reports 3Q
08-07-09 | 2:53PM Pengrowth Announces 2Q
More Analyst Research
Talisman Energy, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-03-09 | 9:22AM Talisman Buys More Marcellus Acres
07-29-09 | 9:53AM Talisman Ramps Up Marcellus Program
More Analyst Research
Ultra Petroleum Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
10-30-09 | 9:20AM Ultra's 3Q Earnings Impress
08-04-09 | 9:19AM Plenty to Like in Ultra's 2Q Earnings
05-14-09 | 9:01AM Lowering Ultra's Uncertainty Rating
05-06-09 | 3:28PM Ultra Reports First-Quarter Results
More Analyst Research
Denbury Resources, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-05-09 | 4:41PM Denbury's 3Q Stays On Track
11-02-09 | 3:05PM Denbury Faces Merger Challenges
11-02-09 | 9:31AM Denbury to Acquire Encore
08-04-09 | 5:30PM Tertiary Oil Gains in Denbury's 2Q
05-06-09 | 9:29AM Denbury's Projects Move Ahead in 1Q
More Analyst Research
Canetic Resources Trust Full Analyst Report
More Analyst Research
Primewest Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
More Analyst Research
BG Group PLC Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-05-09 | 2:27PM BG Group Reports 3Q
07-31-09 | 2:17PM BG Group Reports First-Half Earnings
06-30-09 | 2:36PM EXCO Enters Joint Venture with BG
More Analyst Research
StatoilHydro ASA Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-10-09 | 2:17PM Statoil Reports 3Q
05-15-09 | 10:44AM A Look at Statoil's 1Q Earnings
|
