We are raising our long-term natural-gas price assumptions. As such, our new price deck will positively affect our fair value estimates for numerous companies in the natural-gas industry. From the time when we last revised our natural gas forecast higher (in February 2006) until now, we have continued to see natural-gas finding and development costs climb in North America. We think the price required to induce new marginal producers to invest in new supply is around $7-$8 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) over the next five years. On the low end, we think the large installed base of gas-fired power plants should help support prices above $5 per mcf. Although liquefied natural gas should displace some high-cost domestic production over the next five years, we don't see it as a significant threat to our new natural-gas price deck.Our new five-year natural gas price deck: 2007: $7.80 2008: $7.60 2009: $7.10 2010: $7.20 2011: $7.40 Our previous price deck: 2007: $7.70 2008: $7.10 2009: $6.20 2010: $6.30 2011: $6.40 Increases in our fair value estimates will vary. For firms that concentrate on oil or those pursuing an integrated strategy, we expect fairly small changes. However, we expect more significant adjustments to our fair value estimates for smaller, independent firms focusing on North American natural-gas production. Please refer to the valuation section of each company's Analyst Report to see how our fair value estimates are changing on a firm-by-firm basis. Get our full take on
BG Group PLC, St. Mary Land & Exploration Company, Energy Partners, Ltd., Range Resources Corporation, Bill Barrett Corporation, McMoRan Exploration Co., Devon Energy Corporation, Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Provident Energy Trust, Whiting Petroleum Corporation, Southwestern Energy Company, Quicksilver Resources, Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corp., Delta Petroleum Corporation, EXCO Resources, Inc., XTO Energy, Inc., EOG Resources, Apache Corporation, San Juan Basin Royalty, Newfield Exploration Company, Cimarex Energy Company, Nexen, Inc., EnCana Corporation, Penn West Energy Trust, Enerplus Resources Fund, Pengrowth Energy Trust, Talisman Energy, Inc., Ultra Petroleum Corporation, Denbury Resources, Inc., Canetic Resources Trust, Primewest Energy Trust, BG Group PLC, StatoilHydro ASA
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Analyst Notes 11-05-09 | 2:27PM BG Group Reports 3Q 07-31-09 | 2:17PM BG Group Reports First-Half Earnings 06-30-09 | 2:36PM EXCO Enters Joint Venture with BG
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St. Mary Land & Exploration Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-03-09 | 8:44AM St. Mary Ramping Up in Eagle Ford 08-04-09 | 8:49AM St. Mary Increases Drilling Activity 07-21-09 | 9:09AM Earnings Preview for St. Mary
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Energy Partners, Ltd. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 06-12-09 | 2:47PM Dropping Coverage of Energy Partners 04-01-09 | 3:15PM Energy Partners at the End of Its Rope
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Range Resources Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-16-09 | 4:28PM Spectra, Range Team Up in Marcellus 10-22-09 | 8:55AM Range Resources Turns In 3Q Results 10-14-09 | 9:12AM Range Resources Gives 3Q Operations Update 07-23-09 | 4:31PM Range Resources Turns 2Q Results 07-16-09 | 9:34AM Range Provides Operations Update
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Bill Barrett Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-03-09 | 10:09AM Bill Barrett Posts 3Q 08-04-09 | 10:51AM Bill Barrett Turns In 2Q Results 05-05-09 | 4:35PM Bill Barrett Optimistic on Rockies
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McMoRan Exploration Co. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-20-09 | 9:17AM McMoRan's Drilling Continues in 3Q 07-17-09 | 8:50AM McMoRan's Challenges Remain in 2Q 04-23-09 | 1:09PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes 04-22-09 | 10:37AM McMoRan's 1Q Signals Offshore Risks
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Devon Energy Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-16-09 | 8:51AM Devon Repositions 11-04-09 | 11:14AM Devon Sees Declines in 3Q 08-05-09 | 9:15AM Devon Announces 2Q Results
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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-03-09 | 9:02AM Anadarko Reports 3Q 08-04-09 | 9:23AM Anadarko Reports 2Q Results 05-07-09 | 1:08PM Anadarko Announces 1Q Results
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Provident Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-11-09 | 5:26PM Provident Energy Announces 3Q 08-13-09 | 8:55AM Provident Energy Buys and Sells Assets 05-22-09 | 2:25PM Provident Finishes Strategic Review
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Whiting Petroleum Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-29-09 | 9:16AM Whiting Posts 3Q Results 07-30-09 | 10:13AM Whiting Raises 2009 Capital Budget 04-30-09 | 1:42PM Whiting Sees Improving Bakken Returns
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Southwestern Energy Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-30-09 | 8:37AM Southwestern's Growth Resumes in 4Q 08-04-09 | 4:23PM Southwestern Drilling Gains Persist 05-22-09 | 4:36PM Lower Uncertainty for Southwestern Energy 05-01-09 | 10:28AM Southwestern Energy Shines Again
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Quicksilver Resources, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-09-09 | 8:52AM Quicksilver's 3Q Production Lags 11-04-09 | 10:36AM Quicksilver's Production Outstrips Estimates 09-22-09 | 9:26AM Great Start for Quicksilver Resources 08-10-09 | 8:53AM Quicksilver Resources Reports 2Q 05-20-09 | 9:23AM Reducing Quicksilver's Uncertainty 05-18-09 | 9:12AM Quicksilver Announces Alliance with Eni
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Chesapeake Energy Corp. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-20-09 | 3:17PM Chesapeake Energy under Review 11-03-09 | 8:56AM Chesapeake Announces 3Q Results 08-04-09 | 9:02AM Chesapeake Turns In 2Q Results
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Delta Petroleum Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 09-15-09 | 3:53PM Dropping Coverage of Delta Petroleum 05-27-09 | 4:43PM Delta Petroleum CEO Resigns 04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
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EXCO Resources, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-06-09 | 10:21AM EXCO Transforms Itself in 2009 06-30-09 | 2:36PM EXCO Enters Joint Venture with BG 06-29-09 | 11:59AM Encore Acquires EXCO Properties 04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
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XTO Energy, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-04-09 | 9:25AM XTO Tops Our 3Q Production Forecast 08-05-09 | 9:11AM XTO's 2Q Results Impress 05-06-09 | 2:50PM XTO Announces First-Quarter Results
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EOG Resources Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 08-07-09 | 9:00AM EOG Announces 2Q Results 05-05-09 | 3:25PM EOG Announces 1Q Results 04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
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Apache Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-29-09 | 9:46AM International Operations Boost Apache 07-30-09 | 9:22AM Apache Reports Production Gains 04-30-09 | 9:28AM Apache Reports 1Q, Buys Assets
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San Juan Basin Royalty Full Analyst Report
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Newfield Exploration Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-10-09 | 4:57PM Newfield Acquires Eagle Ford Assets 10-22-09 | 8:48AM Newfield Resets Drilling Plans 09-11-09 | 10:06AM Newfield Finds Offshore China Oil 07-27-09 | 8:37AM Newfield's 2Q Spotlights Granite Wash 07-20-09 | 3:57PM Deepwater Discoveries Continue 06-10-09 | 9:08AM Offshore Discoveries for Newfield
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Cimarex Energy Company Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-22-09 | 9:30AM Cimarex Gives 3Q Operations Update 08-07-09 | 8:56AM Cimarex Reports 2Q Results 07-31-09 | 3:36PM 2Q Operational Update from Cimarex 05-08-09 | 11:27AM Update on Cimarex 04-23-09 | 1:15PM 2009 NYC IPAA Conference Notes
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Nexen, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-28-09 | 10:54AM Nexen Reports 3Q 07-16-09 | 11:52AM Nexen Reports 2Q
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EnCana Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-12-09 | 9:18AM EnCana Provides 2010 Estimates 09-11-09 | 9:12AM EnCana to Split in Two 07-23-09 | 4:11PM EnCana Optimistic on Resource Plays
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Penn West Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-05-09 | 12:39PM Penn West Reports 3Q 08-12-09 | 9:07AM Penn West Reports 2Q 05-07-09 | 11:41AM Penn West Announces 1Q
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Enerplus Resources Fund Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-17-09 | 4:27PM Enerplus Buys and Sells Assets 08-10-09 | 9:39AM Enerplus Announces 2Q
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Pengrowth Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-10-09 | 9:25AM Pengrowth Reports 3Q 08-07-09 | 2:53PM Pengrowth Announces 2Q
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Talisman Energy, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-03-09 | 9:22AM Talisman Buys More Marcellus Acres 07-29-09 | 9:53AM Talisman Ramps Up Marcellus Program
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Ultra Petroleum Corporation Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-30-09 | 9:20AM Ultra's 3Q Earnings Impress 08-04-09 | 9:19AM Plenty to Like in Ultra's 2Q Earnings 05-14-09 | 9:01AM Lowering Ultra's Uncertainty Rating 05-06-09 | 3:28PM Ultra Reports First-Quarter Results
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Denbury Resources, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-05-09 | 4:41PM Denbury's 3Q Stays On Track 11-02-09 | 3:05PM Denbury Faces Merger Challenges 11-02-09 | 9:31AM Denbury to Acquire Encore 08-04-09 | 5:30PM Tertiary Oil Gains in Denbury's 2Q 05-06-09 | 9:29AM Denbury's Projects Move Ahead in 1Q
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Canetic Resources Trust Full Analyst Report
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Primewest Energy Trust Full Analyst Report
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BG Group PLC Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-05-09 | 2:27PM BG Group Reports 3Q 07-31-09 | 2:17PM BG Group Reports First-Half Earnings 06-30-09 | 2:36PM EXCO Enters Joint Venture with BG
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StatoilHydro ASA Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 11-10-09 | 2:17PM Statoil Reports 3Q 05-15-09 | 10:44AM A Look at Statoil's 1Q Earnings
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