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Wendy's/Arby's Pressured in 3Qby R. J. Hottovy, CFA | 11-06-09 | 11:04AM | E-mail Article | Print Article
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Wendy's/Arby's Group's WEN third-quarter top-line results fell short of expectations, but our thesis regarding the margin expansion potential of the postmerger firm remains intact. There is no change to our fair value estimate.

Top-line trends at both chains remained weak because of higher unemployment and aggressive discounting among quick-service restaurant chains, with flat systemwide same-store sales at Wendy's and a 9% decline at Arby's. Even with the introduction of Arby's everyday value strategy in October, we believe sales growth will remain a challenge through the end of the calendar year, with Arby's same-store sales declines likely to remain in the mid- to high-single-digit range and Wendy's in the low-single-digit range. However, we expect improvement during 2010--owing to the expanded rollout of Arby's dollar menu as well as new product launches at both brands--leading to slightly positive full-year same-store sales at Wendy's and modestly negative same-store sales at Arby's.

Restaurant margins (or sales less food, labor, and occupancy costs) for company-owned Wendy's restaurants increased 400 basis points to 15.2%, showing remarkable improvement in a chain that had struggled to generate profitability before the merger. Although much of the margin improvement stems from price increases and lower food commodity costs, we have generally been pleased by efforts to streamline labor and utilities expenses and lower food waste costs (which represented almost half of the 400-basis-point gain for the quarter). We still have some concerns about ongoing operating margin deleverage at the Arby's brand, and we have reduced our full-year consolidated operating margin assumptions as a result. However, the firm remains well on its way to meet its three-year target of $100 million of restaurant margin improvement at Wendy's and reduce general and administrative costs by $60 million through its shared service center and other information technology improvements. We also believe the establishment of a national supply-chain cooperative among Wendy's franchisees could eventually extend the firm's cost savings past its original targets.


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Analyst Notes
08-07-09 | 9:54AM   Wendy's/Arby's Makes Progress in 2Q
05-08-09 | 4:23PM   Wendy's/Arby's Group Reports 1Q

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R. J. Hottovy, CFA, is a stock analyst with Morningstar. Analyst Feedback.
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Wendy's/Arby's Pressured in 3Q rj.hottovy@morningstar.com Wendy's/Arby's Pressured in 3Q WEN