As we had anticipated, Agrium AGU has come back to the table with a sweetened offer for CF Industries CF after CF revised its own bid for Terra TRA. Agrium raised the cash portion of its offer to $45 per CF share from $40 per share, a 12.5% increase. The offer also includes one Agrium share per CF share--consistent with the prior offer--placing the total value of the bid as of Wednesday's close at $92.99 per CF share, a 43% premium to our stand-alone fair value estimate for CF. Based on the tenor of CF's initial response--which states that the EBITDA multiples associated with the bid for CF are substantially lower than those tied to CF's bid for Terra--we don't think that CF is going to jump on this new offer. We expect that the deadlock will continue, pending the outcome of Terra's upcoming shareholder meeting. It is also important to note that as these bids continue to inch up, they creep further into potentially value-destroying territory for both CF and Agrium shareholders.
Get our full take on
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., Agrium, Inc., Terra Industries, Inc.
See our complete company report and outlook--including fair value estimate, consider buying and selling prices, risk rating, bull and bear arguments,
and star rating--with a free two-week Morningstar.com Premium Membership trial.
You will also get complete access to all 2,000 Stock Analyst Reports, 2,000 Mutual Fund Analyst Reports, and Morningstar's award-winning Portfolio Management and Screening tools.
Start my free trial
Learn more about Premium Membership
View Sample Analyst Report
More Analyst Research
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-20-09 | 10:46AM CF Delivers Knockout Punch
11-19-09 | 9:35AM Fertilizer Bout to Go Another Round
11-04-09 | 2:49PM Agrium's Waiting on the Weather
11-02-09 | 2:16PM CF Trades Currencies with New Bid
10-27-09 | 12:45PM CF Nimble in 3Q
10-19-09 | 11:24AM Agrium and Terra Agree to Asset Sale
10-01-09 | 12:55PM Terra Rebuffs CF Yet Again
09-28-09 | 12:08PM CF Stays on Target
09-25-09 | 12:12PM Terra Takes Evasive Action
09-01-09 | 3:06PM Terra Sets a Date
08-12-09 | 8:55AM WASDE Strikes Bearish Note for Corn
08-05-09 | 1:28PM CF Takes Another Stab at Terra Deal
07-28-09 | 11:38AM CF Reports Resilient 2Q
07-13-09 | 2:55PM Potash Sellers May Fall in Line
06-26-09 | 1:27PM Potash Slashes Forecast
06-23-09 | 9:02AM CF May Come to Table after Tender
More Analyst Research
Agrium, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-20-09 | 10:46AM CF Delivers Knockout Punch
11-19-09 | 9:35AM Fertilizer Bout to Go Another Round
11-04-09 | 2:49PM Agrium's Waiting on the Weather
11-02-09 | 2:16PM CF Trades Currencies with New Bid
10-23-09 | 5:05PM Agrium Warns on 3Q
10-19-09 | 11:24AM Agrium and Terra Agree to Asset Sale
10-01-09 | 12:55PM Terra Rebuffs CF Yet Again
09-28-09 | 12:08PM CF Stays on Target
09-01-09 | 3:06PM Terra Sets a Date
08-12-09 | 8:55AM WASDE Strikes Bearish Note for Corn
08-05-09 | 1:06PM Better Days ahead for Agrium
07-20-09 | 4:12PM Potash Market Trying to Gain Traction
07-17-09 | 8:32AM Agrium Cuts Potash Prices
07-13-09 | 2:55PM Potash Sellers May Fall in Line
07-10-09 | 2:18PM Potash Prices Set to Drop
06-26-09 | 1:27PM Potash Slashes Forecast
06-23-09 | 9:02AM CF May Come to Table after Tender
06-17-09 | 11:10AM K+S Cuts European Potash Prices
More Analyst Research
Terra Industries, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes
11-20-09 | 10:46AM CF Delivers Knockout Punch
11-19-09 | 9:35AM Fertilizer Bout to Go Another Round
11-04-09 | 2:49PM Agrium's Waiting on the Weather
11-02-09 | 2:16PM CF Trades Currencies with New Bid
10-22-09 | 5:01PM Terra Reports 3Q
10-19-09 | 11:24AM Agrium and Terra Agree to Asset Sale
10-01-09 | 12:55PM Terra Rebuffs CF Yet Again
09-28-09 | 12:08PM CF Stays on Target
09-25-09 | 12:12PM Terra Takes Evasive Action
09-01-09 | 3:06PM Terra Sets a Date
08-12-09 | 8:55AM WASDE Strikes Bearish Note for Corn
08-05-09 | 1:28PM CF Takes Another Stab at Terra Deal
07-24-09 | 8:56AM Falling Prices Hurt Terra in 2Q
06-23-09 | 9:02AM CF May Come to Table after Tender
| 
