After almost two years of restructuring and losses, Conseco's CNO third straight quarter of profits demonstrates that the firm is executing on its turnaround plans. Because much of the firm's value is tied up in net operating loss carryforwards which will only be valuable if they can offset earnings at Conseco, it is important that the firm stabilizes its earnings before these credits expire. For the third quarter, Conseco earned net income of $0.08 per diluted share, but on an operating basis, the results were not as favorable compared with those of the 2008 third quarter. Per diluted share, the firm earned $0.29 in operating income, a 6% decrease from that of a year ago, as the firm's interest expense increased with renegotiations of its covenant agreements earlier this year. As previously announced, Conseco is issuing additional shares to work on reducing its leverage, which we think is a necessary step to ensure that the firm remains on solid financial footing, but will necessarily further reduce shareholders' existing stake. We continue to be extremely hesitant to recommend Conseco to investors as the firm's high leverage makes it difficult to forecast its future with any degree of reliability. Our fair value estimate remains unchanged. As has been the case thus far in 2009, the improvement in Conseco's results has centered in the Bankers Life and Colonial Penn units, while Conseco Insurance Group continues to struggle as it shifts its product mix. Also, the balance sheet improved as fixed-income credit spreads contracted, leaving the firm with a negligible $146 million unrealized loss, a far cry from the $1.7 billion net loss position at the end of 2008. This was a big part of the double in Conseco's book value per share since the beginning of the year. Although the recapitalization has nearly eliminated the chances of a complete loss at Conseco, the firm continues to face an uphill battle in earning back its cost of capital. Get our full take on
Conseco, Inc.
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Conseco, Inc. Full Analyst Report
Analyst Notes 10-14-09 | 9:07AM Conseco Offers Additional Stock 08-04-09 | 5:33PM Conseco Announces Decent 2Q Results 05-11-09 | 9:37AM Conseco Announces 1Q Results
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