Stock Analyst Notes

by Tom Corbett | 04-21-09 | 2:12PM | E-mail Note
Browse Analyst Notes by Company : A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z All

The swift and relentless decline in ad spending was more than evident in New York Times' NYT grim first-quarter results reported April 21. We're maintaining our fair value estimate. Total first-quarter revenue of $609 million represents a 19% decline from the same period a year earlier. It also marks a breathtaking acceleration in the rate at which the Times' top line is hemorrhaging, both sequentially and year over year, as its once-copious flow of ad dollars continues to slow to a trickle. The revenue decline was driven by a 27% decline in total ad revenue (55% of revenue), offset slightly by a 1% increase in circulation revenue (38% of revenue).

The magnitude of the ad revenue decline was felt nearly equally across the board. At all three major media divisions, quarterly ad revenue declined by 27%, 32%, and 29% at its New York Times, New England, and Regional Media Groups, respectively. Advertising categories that witnessed the most precipitous erosion in sales were retail, which checked in with a 25% decline, and classifieds, where sales fell by a remarkable 45% over the same period last year. Its About.com digital/online unit, once a dependable beacon of growth, weighed in with a 5% revenue decline, to $27 million (4% of revenue), versus 25% growth during the same period a year earlier.

What is probably some of the most aggressive and unprecedented budget cutting in the Times company's history resulted in a substantial reduction in expenses, including a nearly 15% decline in total production costs and a 4% decline in selling, general, and administrative costs. Despite the benefits these lower expenses provided, they were not enough to offset the more rapid and punishing decline in revenues. As a result, first-quarter earnings before interest and taxes (excluding one-time special charges) narrowed to just 3% of revenues, versus 9% during the same period a year earlier. With little to no visibility regarding a sustained recovery in ad spending, we expect margins to continue to come under pressure, as declining revenues continue to push up against the publisher's highly fixed cost structure.

Add a Comment
Sponsored Links
Buy a Link Now
Sponsor Center
Content Partners
Poor 1Q Results for New York Times tom.corbett@morningstar.com Poor 1Q Results for New York Times NYT