Stock Analyst Notes

by Karen Andersen | 07-06-07 | 3:16PM | E-mail Note
Browse Analyst Notes by Company : A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z All

Genzyme GENZ announced disappointing Phase III trial results for one of the drug candidates in its pipeline, but we're sticking with our fair value estimate. Hospital-acquired diarrhea drug candidate tolevamer failed to prove noninferiority to a standard treatment, ViroPharma's VPHM oral antibiotic Vancocin. However, the global scale of Genzyme's diverse portfolio of products helps to shield it from such disappointments, and tolevamer wasn't the only star in Genzyme's maturing pipeline. We expect to gain more clarity on the firm's potential acquisition of Bioenvision BIVN and the strength of second-quarter sales and profitability later this month.

Despite tolevamer's poor data, we aren't removing the drug candidate from our model just yet. Results also indicated that tolevamer could lower the rate of recurrence of infection, and we should see more data from a second Phase III trial later this year. We've reduced tolevamer's probability of approval to 40% from 60%, which has no material effect on our valuation.

Earlier this week, Genzyme announced that a single-injection osteoarthritis medicine, known as hylastan, failed to show superior pain relief to steroids, a standard of care. However, Genzyme already filed for Food and Drug Administration approval of another single-injection treatment, Synvisc-One, in June, and we don't think hylastan's failure will hurt the growth of Genzyme's biosurgery segment. Genzyme is also in the midst of acquiring Bioenvision, its European partner for cancer drug Clolar, in a $345 million all-cash deal. Despite efforts by some Bioenvision shareholders to prevent the completion of Genzyme's tender offer, we expect the deal to go through, but an acquisition of this size doesn't move the meter on our fair value estimate.

Looking at the rest of Genzyme's pipeline, a Phase II trial for a rare-disease treatment appears to be going smoothly, with full results expected in mid-2008. The firm's gene therapy pipeline is starting to move forward, and Genzyme recently announced a partnership with private biotech firm Ceregene to develop and market another gene therapy candidate, CERE-120, for Parkinson's disease. We should also see progress with Campath and Mozobil, two drugs that we see as the biggest drivers for Genzyme's pipeline, by the end of the year.

Add a Comment
Sponsored Links
Buy a Link Now
Sponsor Center
Content Partners
Genzyme's Pipeline Hits a Snag karen_andersen@morningstar.com Genzyme's Pipeline Hits a Snag GENZ